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– Climate Change Projections for the Atlantic Maritime Provinces (PDF)
Joshua Palmer, Daniel A. Herms and Scott E. Maco. Technical Bulletin, 5 pages posted on www.davey.com. Referenced, includes papers by AR Taylor, others (latest: 2022). Subtopics: The climate is warming, Surging summer temperatures but smaller changes in winter, The climate is warming cont.(Hardiness zones), Highly variable precipitation and extreme weather events, Short and long-term impacts on forest health, Sea level rise, Health risks and worker safety. “By 2050, climate change is anticipated to have considerable impacts on the forests of Atlantic Canada. In the short-term, disturbances including severe storm events, pest outbreaks, invasions by non-native species, and increased wildfire will alter forest communities and ecosystem processes. In the long-term, climate warming conditions will lead to northward shifts in tree species distribution. By 2100, climate zones suitable for certain hardwood species are projected to shift northward by 250-600 km. Red and black spruce are expected to decline in growth and abundance, while the climate zone suitable for yellow birch is projected to shift to the northeast. A similar shift is projected for balsam fir as it disappears from Nova Scotia and most of New Brunswick. Some species that currently reside exclusively south of the border with the United State are projected to migrate into Canada. The shift in species composition in response to the changing climate could impose significant impacts on the forest-dependent enterprises and communities. As the climate warms it can become more suitable for invading species…”
Rapid 21st century climate change projected to shift composition and growth of Canada’s Acadian Forest Region
Anthony R. Taylor et al., 2017. in Forest Ecology and Management ABSTRACT:The impact of climate change on forests is expected to vary globally and regionally. Canada’s Acadian Forest Region lies in the transition between the North American boreal and temperate forest biomes and may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate because many of its component species are currently at their southern or northern climatic range limits. Although some species may be lost, others may exhibit major productivity boosts—affecting the goods and services we derive from them. In this study, we use a well-established forest ecosystem simulation model, PICUS, to provide the first exploration of the impact of climate change on the composition and growth of the Acadian Forest Region for the period 2011 to 2100 under two radiative forcing scenarios, RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5.
In the short term (2011–2040), little to no changes in forest composition or growth were projected under either forcing scenario compared with current forest conditions (simulated for 1981–2010 baseline climate); however, by mid-century, PICUS projected increasing departures from the baseline simulations in both com- position and growth, with the greatest changes occurring under RCP 8.5 during the late 21st century (2071–2100). Our study indicates that under rapid 21st century warming, Canada’s Acadian Forest Region will begin to lose its boreal character (i.e., “deborealize”) as key tree species fail to regenerate and survive. Furthermore, increased growth and establishment by warm-adapted, temperate tree species may be unable to keep pace with the rapid loss of boreal species. This potential “lag effect” may lead to a temporary decrease in forest growth and wood supply during the late 21st century