From whence came the figure of “5.7 million cubic meters/yr” as the Sustainable Forest Harvest Level for Nova Scotia? 17Sep2024

There seems to be some reticence by the Nova Scotia Government and the NS Forestry Economic Task Force to explain that figure.

How much wood can we harvest from NS forests without massive loss of forest cover as we had leading up to the Natural Resource Strategy Review (2008-2010) and the Lahey Review (2017-2018) of Forestry Practices in NS? Image from a post on nsforestnotes.ca Jan8, 2019
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I cited this figure in a post on nsforestmatters.ca on Sep 3, 2024:

The figure of “5.7 million cubic meters/yr” is cited as the Sustainable Harvest Level for NS, e.g., in the NS Forestry Economic Task Force’s Nova Scotia Forestry Sector Fact Sheet

Questions

(1) What is publicly available or can be shared about how that number was generated?… [ and 7 more related questions were asked]

I sent the 8 questions to contacts in NS NRR (Nova Scotia Government Department of Natural Resources & Renewables) on Aug 24; on Aug 27, 2024, I was directed to address the questions to “Communications Nova Scotia”.

On Sep 10, I was advised by Communications Nova Scotia:  “That fact sheet was produced by the Nova Scotia Forestry Economic Task Force. They are in the best position to discuss how their reached their conclusions.”

So I sent the questions to the Nova Scotia Forestry Economic Task Force. (NSFETF) I had a prompt reply (Sep 11) commenting that “I’ll be back to you ASAP with some answers …” but I have had no followup as of Sep 16.

In the meantime, I proceeded to search… First, I  looked at some documents produced by NSFETF and listed on their website. In a document titled “Nova Scotia Forest Fibre Supply Analysis, Forestry Economic Task Force NOVEMBER 2022 – FINAL REPORT”, under the Executive Summary, there is this statement:

So according to  the NSFETF, the figure originated with NS NRR.

A document – Feedstock Availability and Cost in Nova Scotia – produced by the NS Innovation Hub/FP Innovations in Aug 2021 provides some further info (yellow higlighting inserted):The 2016 reference is to  “Nova Scotia Department of Natural Resources (NSDNR). (2016). Nova Scotia Strategic Forest Analysis (SFA): 2016”

So… the conclusion (for now): the figure originated with Nova Scotia NRR (DNR in 2016), not with the Nova Scotia Forestry Economic Task Force.

However, that publication is not currently publicly available on novascotia.ca  nor could I find it  in searches of the Web Archive. So it’s hard to answer my questions 3 to 10 without it (and possibly even with it).

…’kind of important to get objective answers to those questions, given the great expectations we have of our forests, the cautions of  Lahey notwithstanding*.

Can Nova Scotia forests supply the biomass for a Biofuel Megaproject in Guysborough Co.,
AND…
supply the biomass for another Bioeconomy Initiative in SW Nova Scotia,
AND supply wood for a new Pulp & Paper Mill (proposed) in SW Nova Scotia,
AND supply wood for the a new Mass Timber Company plant in East Hants, N.S.,
AND supply our ongoing Lumber Mills and our one ongoing Paper Mill (Port Hawkesbury Paper) and ongoing Forest Bioenergy Facilities and ongoing Chip Export Operations,
AND allow the depleted soils that cover about 60% of the forested landscape to recover,
AND “protect and enhance ecosystems and biodiversity as the overarching policy priority” in its application of the TRIAD to our Crown land forests?
The NS Forestry Economic Task Force seems think so, citing a figure of “5.7 million cubic meters/yr” as the Sustainable Harvest Level for NS. How was that figure generated, what are the assumptions?  Those are questions for which we (the public stakeholders in Nova Scotia’s Crown land forests) could use some answers – View Post,  3 Sep2024
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david p

* …the Minister by his own words on Dec 3 of 2018 and again a few days ago has it made it clear that L&F/Big Forestry will not accept any, even transient, reduction in wood supply (as predicted would be the case by Lahey & Co.).

…And while Lahey predicted less clear cutting would lead to a reduction of Crown land wood supply of 10 to 20 per cent, Rankin disagreed. “We believe that we can sustainably grow this industry.” – CBC Dec 3, 2018

“We’re talking about leveraging higher volumes of that low-value pulp wood, both private and Crown land,” he said. “When those things are in place, then you’ll see more opportunity for partial harvesting on both private and Crown [land].” CBC, Aug 19, 2020

From a post on NS Forest Notes, Aug 20, 2020.

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