2014 Clearcut on Crown land, viewed in 2015 (Google Earth). The oft-cited figure of “5.7 million cubic meters/annum” for the Sustainable Harvest Level for Nova Scotia was formulated in 2016, well before the Lahey Recommendations (2018) and the NS Government’s commitment (2021) to 20% Protection by 2030 (currently just under 14% of the NS landscape is protected).
The number that is being cited as the Sustainable Harvest Level for Nova Scotia, 5.7 million cubic meters/annum, dates from NS Government sources in 2016. It surely does not represent what’s available today, what could be sustained well into the future and what Nova Scotians wish to be available for harvesting, while allowing for other uses and values of our forested landscape. For the sake of Nova Scotians at large and to provide credible numbers to the forest industry and investors, the government is urged to move quickly on its “Work [that] is underway to develop a new number based on the triad model”, and to follow the related recommendations of Bill Lahey.
Screencapture of first 2 pages in the Forestry Economic Task Force’s Nova Scotia Forestry Sector Fact Sheet
With all of the mega-projects that involve use of wood or clearing of forested lands that have been proposed, discussed, and some approved recently, I had wondered where the oft-cited figure of “5.7 million cubic meters/yr” as the Sustainable Harvest Level for Nova Scotia* came from, and how it was generated.**
*e.g., in the NS Forestry Economic Task Force’s Nova Scotia Forestry Sector Fact Sheet
** View posts ….Sep 3, 2024: Questions about stakeholder meetings (re: Feasibility of a new paper mill in Queens Co.) and Sustainable Forest Harvest Levels in Nova Scotia
& Sep 17, 2024: From whence came the figure of “5.7 million cubic meters/yr” as the Sustainable Forest Harvest Level for Nova Scotia? 17Sep2024
I assumed it originated with the NS Government/DNR/L&F/now NRR. On Aug 24, 2024, I wrote two NRR research scientists, posing 8 questions about the number. They had been been helpful in the past when I had asked similar types of questions. This time however I was told that such inquiries must “go through Communications Nova Scotia.”
At one point Communications Nova Scotia told me that the figure originated with the Forestry Economic Task Force. My inquiries went back and forth between myself and Communications Nova Scotia and the NS Forestry Economic Task Force until Oct 8, when I received a reply from Communications NS that answered at least some of the questions.
The NS Government on where the number originated
| Apologies for the delay. We can provide the following and you can attribute it to the Department of Natural Resources and Renewables:
The department calculated the figure of 5.7M m3/yr harvest level in 2016. It appears in the 2016 State of the Forest Report (page 81) and we provided it for the National Forestry Database where it is listed under wood supply. The provincial total includes both Crown and private land. Our analysis that resulted in this number predates our adoption of the triad model of ecological forestry. Work is underway to develop a new number based on the triad model. In developing the 2016 number, we used: – protected areas data that was current at the time The Forest Economic Task Force conducted an independent analysis. It aligns with our calculation because they used the same base data as a stating point. |
As far as I am able to determine from Forestry Economic Task Force documents about their use of the number, its originates with “DNRR”. It is specifically attributed as such in a document “Nova Scotia Forest Fibre Supply Analysis, Forestry Economic Task Force NOVEMBER 2022 – FINAL REPORT by AFRY AB”. (The Report is listed under Reports & Analysis at nsfetf.com. I received it after requesting it on a form at the bottom of that page. Legal language at the top of the report prohibits distribution of the contents.)
On historical harvesting levels and the Sustainable Harvest Level
It is commented in that same Forestry Economic Task Force document that historical harvesting levels have been substantially below the Sustainable Harvest Level (cited as 5.74 million cubic meters per annum).
That is simply not true. According to the NS Gov. Stats, harvests exceeded 5.74 million cubic meters per annum from 1996 to 2005 inclusive:
From Registry of Buyers of Primary Forest Products, 2022 Calendar Year | Report FOR 2023-1, Department of Natural Resources and Renewables September 2023. See Wood Supply (page on this website) for the actual values 1990-2020.
Against the backdrop of the figure above, it’s worth recalling or noting:
- Widespread public concerns about forest harvesting in Nova Scotia led to and were validated by two reviews of forestry practices in the last 15 years: the Natural Resources Strategy (2008-2010); and Lahey’s Forest Practices Review (2017-2018).
- The lead-up to the second review was in years when the harvest levels were well below 5.7 million cubic meters per annum.
- There is now, but there was not in 2016, clear evidence of widespread declines in avian habitat and populations in N.B. and N.S. associated with ‘forest degradation’ over the period 1985 to 2020 (Betts et al, 2022); it’s very likely that there have been significant habitat and population declines in other species groups associated with forest degradation, and the precipitous decline in Mainland Moose is well documented (view NS Gov: Mainland Moose).
- Unlike most other areas in eastern North America that were affected by acid precipitation, soils and waters in NS have not recovered following introduction of emission controls; currently circa 60% of our soils in forested landscape have severe calcium deficiencies. This limitation was not fully documented until 2016, and was not taken into account in the 2016 estimate.
- Nova Scotia’s forests are amongst the most, if not the most, intensively harvested in Canada, currently and historically.
- Post-2016, we have begun to experience major losses of particular tree species associated with exotic pests, notably Hemlock Wooly Adelgid, Beech leaf-mining weevil & Emerald Ash Borer.
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Forest harvesting levels and annual net change in forest ecosystem carbon in NS 2002-2013. From State of the Forest 2016 Nova Scotia Department of Natural Resources
Renewable Resources BranchPost-2016, there has developed a broad consensus that we have a global climate crisis which requires we all do our part, however incremental that might be. Surely with 75% of the NS landscape forested, we must at the very least ensure net sequestration of carbon by our forests. Evidently, that requires that we harvest less than 4 million cubic meters per annum (see figure at right).
- Nova Scotians have a long history of recreational use of our forests for hunting, fishing and camping, and more recently for ecotourism, forest schools, “forest bathing”. Post-2016, our population began to increase very rapidly, i.e., there will be more need for such uses of our forests in future, not less and such uses are largely incompatible with intensive harvesting.
- In 2021, our provincial government committed NS to 20% protection by 2030, it’s currently just under 14%. A major portion of the lands to be added to reach 20% will necessarily have to come from forested Crown lands – view Triad Land Distribution (page on this website) for some rough estimates of how much Crown working forest land could be involved.
I could go on. The point to be made is that citing the 2016 estimate of the Sustainable Forest Harvest level as representative of what’s available today, or of what could be sustained well into the future or of what Nova Scotians wish to be available for harvesting while allowing for other uses and values of our forested landscape is surely mis-representing reality.
“A closely guarded secret”. Click on image for larger version. View Guysborough Journal for full story (Sep 18, 2024)
At the same time, there seems to be an almost frantic rush to commit Nova Scotia to large scale industrial forestry output and use of forested land for windmill megaprojects.
I find it particularly disturbing that most of the lobbying and decision-making or explicit or implied commitments of forested land by both government and the big forestry players are going on largely behind closed doors and without public consultation.
Surely such secrecy does not serve Nova Scotians well; it generates concern that we could be making promises that can’t be kept, or that would require compensation payments if they are reneged upon, or that if kept, would significantly reduce our options for management of Crown lands in future.
In the long run, hyping up the numbers could also prove to be bad for business, for the investors who view numbers coming from government without explicit qualification as fully credible.
On the Work Underway to develop a New Number based on the Triad Model
Surely the NS government needs to move much more quickly in regard to the “Work [that] is underway to develop a new number based on the triad model.” Presumably the work underway relates to the next State of the Forest Report, about which Bill Lahey had clear recommendations. Following are excerpts from pages 65-66 in the Independent Evaluation of Implementation of the Forest Practices Report for Nova Scotia (2018)
by William Lahey, Nov 2021.
| Outcomes Evaluation
The third level of evaluation, and associated indicators, is about outcomes. The focus shifts from the activity underway to implement the FPR and the outcomes produced by that activity, to questions such as the condition of forests and the forest products available to industry plausibly resulting from implementation. But there are also other kinds of relevant outcomes.For example, what is the level of public awareness of and approval of changes happening in how Crown lands are managed, and do the public believe that the condition of Nova Scotia’s forests is healthy or unhealthy, improving or declining? It is also important to know the level of public trust and confidence in the Department relative to forestry in general and on Crown lands in particular, and with respect to the management of Crown lands more generally. The indicators needed for this level of evaluation in relation to the condition of forests are more challenging to identify because of the relative diffuseness of the outcomes e.g., healthier ecosystems and biodiversity and the complexity of attributing changes in observed conditions to implementation of the FPR. There must be clarity on the required attributes of indicators to ensure their quality and utility. Indicators must be developed in advance of their application in evaluation to ensure not only the objectivity of evaluation and therefore its reliability but also its feasibility and efficiency.It is anticipated that a significant number of indicators currently not in use may have to be tracked. This may mean collecting data that we do not currently collect.This raises issues about establishing the benchmark from which measurement can begin. Measuring the condition of the forests and of the wood supply should be among the purposes of the Department’s State of the Forest report. The FPR included specific recommendations (5 and 6) for improving the report and state of the forest reporting more broadly to ensure that it better achieves its intended purpose, as follows: 5. Whether the forests are in good, poor, improving, or declining condition regionally and provincially, both from an ecological perspective and as an economic resource should be the guiding question in discussions and decision making for forestry in Nova Scotia. To that end:
6. DNR should work transparently and collaboratively with interested parties, including representatives from the academic community, in making improvements to reporting on forests and forestry, including in the State of the Forest report. With the implementation of these recommendations, which is in early stages, State of the Forest reports should become the major data source for future outcomes evaluations. |
How about it, Premier Houston, Minister Rushton, Minister Halman? Can we have such a State of the Forest Report sooner rather than later? And just perhaps before the next provincial election?