Tipping Points

A map showing global and regional tipping elements: if the global temperature increases past a certain point (color-coded for temperature thresholds), this particular element would be tipped.^[1] The result would be a transition to a different state.^[2]

In climate science, a tipping point is a critical threshold that, when crossed, leads to large, accelerating and often irreversible changes in the climate system.^[3] If tipping points are crossed, they are likely to have severe impacts on human society and may accelerate global warming.^[4][5] Tipping behavior is found across the climate system, for example in ice sheets, mountain glaciers, circulation patterns in the ocean, in ecosystems, and the atmosphere.^[5] Examples of tipping points include thawing permafrost, which will release methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, or melting ice sheets and glaciers reducing Earth’s albedo, which would warm the planet faster. Thawing permafrost is a threat multiplier because it holds roughly twice as much carbon as the amount currently circulating in the atmosphere.^[6]

Tipping points are often, but not necessarily, abrupt. For example, with average global warming somewhere between 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) and 3 °C (5.4 °F), the Greenland ice sheet passes a tipping point and melts, but it would take place over millennia.^[2][7] Tipping points are possible at today’s global warming of just over 1 °C (1.8 °F) above preindustrial times, and highly probable above 2 °C (3.6 °F) of global warming.^[5] It is possible that some tipping points are close to being crossed or have already been crossed, like those of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and warm-water coral reefs. A 2022 study published in Science found that exceeding 1.5 °C of global warming could trigger multiple tipping points, including the collapse of major ice sheets, abrupt thawing of permafrost, and coral reef die-off, with potential for cascading system effects.^[8][9]

A danger is that if the tipping point in one system is crossed, this could cause a cascade of other tipping points, leading to severe, potentially catastrophic,^[10] impacts.^[11] Crossing a threshold in one part of the climate system may trigger another tipping element to tip into a new state.^[12] For example, ice loss in West Antarctica and Greenland will significantly alter ocean circulation. Sustained warming of the northern high latitudes as a result of this process could activate tipping elements in that region, such as permafrost degradation, and boreal forest dieback.^[3]

– The Global Tipping Points Report 2025
“As COP30 approached, we synthesised the latest research on tipping points – both positive and negative – into the Global Tipping Points Report 2025. A total of 160 authors, from 23 countries and 87 institutions contributed. Together, we consolidated knowledge on how to govern Earth system tipping points, the risks they pose, and the opportunities presented by understanding and acting on positive tipping points….In September 2022 we held our first conference that covered the latest developments in both negative and positive tipping points, at scales from local to global, and from theory to practice. It considered the risks from climate tipping points and opportunities for positive tipping points for different regions, communities, sectors, and supply chains. We then produced the first authoritative global report, launching the Global Tipping Points Report at COP28 in 2023. In July 2025, we hosted a second conference and the Global Tipping Report 2025 has just been published. ”